With the rapid development of the downstream new energy vehicle industry, the installed capacity of power lithium batteries has increased significantly; at the same time, due to the increasing requirements of subsidy policies on the mileage of new energy vehicles and the energy density of batteries, ternary lithium batteries have gradually become the mainstream of the market.
Lithium battery is a secondary chemical battery (rechargeable chemical battery), which has the advantages of high energy density, high working voltage, light weight, small size, small self-discharge, no memory effect, long cycle life, and fast charging. Containing lead, cadmium and other heavy metals, non-polluting, non-toxic materials, known as green new energy products, it is the energy storage technology that is most in line with the development trend of new energy applications.
Lithium batteries are mainly composed of five parts, namely positive electrode material, negative electrode material, electrolyte, separator and packaging material. The positive electrode material provides lithium ions for the battery, accounting for about 30% of the battery cost. Its performance directly determines the upper limit of the lithium battery capacity and is the core part of the industrial chain. Lithium battery cathode materials are mainly divided into lithium iron phosphate, ternary lithium, lithium manganate, lithium cobaltate, lithium titanate, etc., among which ternary lithium includes nickel-cobalt lithium manganese oxide NCM and nickel-cobalt lithium aluminate NCA two categories, As the proportion of nickel increases, the energy density of the cathode material also increases accordingly. Power batteries in my country mainly use two positive electrode materials, lithium iron phosphate and ternary lithium. Lithium iron phosphate has high safety and relatively low energy density, and is widely used in the field of new energy buses and special vehicles. Used in the field of passenger cars and special vehicles. With the continuous improvement of battery energy density and mileage requirements, the penetration rate of ternary materials is growing rapidly.
In recent years, based on solving the problems of environmental pollution and energy crisis, new energy vehicles have developed rapidly, and the key to new energy vehicles lies in power lithium batteries; For the first time, applications surpassed consumer batteries and became the most important factor in the growth of lithium battery demand. Specifically, driven by the rapid heating up of the new energy vehicle market, China's power lithium battery installed capacity increased by 368.35% year-on-year in 2014, reaching 3.70GWh. With the increasing volume of new energy vehicles, the domestic demand for power lithium batteries has grown rapidly, but the growth rate has slowed down. In 2017, under the influence of factors such as the decline of subsidies for new energy vehicles and the re-examination of the model announcement catalog, the power lithium battery market was affected to a certain extent, but overall it still achieved relatively high growth. In 2017, the installed capacity of power lithium batteries was 36.20GWh, a year-on-year increase of 29.29%. From January to September 2018, the installed capacity of power lithium batteries was 28.78GWh, an increase of about 94% year-on-year. After the adjustment of subsidy policies, the industry continued to maintain a rapid development trend. With the gradual implementation of national policies, the improvement of lithium battery production technology in the future, the reduction of costs, and the increase in the popularity of new energy vehicles and supporting facilities, the demand for power batteries for new energy vehicles will continue to grow in the next few years.
In terms of battery types, the current domestic power lithium battery types are mainly lithium iron phosphate batteries and ternary lithium batteries. In 2016, the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries accounted for 72.24%, and the installed capacity of ternary lithium batteries accounted for 22.25%. In 2017, affected by the policy, the installed capacity of ternary lithium batteries increased significantly to 44.01%. The proportion of installed capacity of iron-lithium batteries dropped to 49.30%; from January to September 2018, the proportion of installed capacity of ternary lithium batteries further increased to 57.60%. Since the upper limit of energy density of lithium iron phosphate batteries is not high, it will restrict the development of lithium iron phosphate batteries. Ternary materials have higher specific capacity and average voltage, which can further increase the energy density of batteries. As far as the current technology is concerned, only ternary batteries can meet the requirement of an energy density of 260Wh/kg in 2020, so the technical route of ternary batteries is the best choice at present, and battery companies will continue to increase the layout of ternary batteries.Also read:24V 400AH Lithium Battery
In terms of price, the price of domestic power lithium batteries has shown a downward trend in recent years. According to the data of GGII, the Lithium Battery Research Institute of Advanced Industry and Research, the price of power lithium batteries at the end of 2017 dropped by 20~25% compared with the beginning of 2017, and the price of lithium iron phosphate power battery packs dropped from 1.8~1.9 yuan/Wh at the beginning of the year to 1.45~ at the end of the year 1.55 yuan/Wh, the price of ternary power battery packs dropped from 1.7~1.8 yuan/Wh at the beginning of the year to 1.4~1.5 yuan/Wh at the end of the year. On the one hand, new production capacity in the industry is gradually released and competition intensifies, leading to a drop in the price of lithium batteries; on the other hand, affected by the rapid decline in subsidies for new energy vehicles, downstream vehicle companies require power lithium battery companies to significantly reduce prices. Since 2018, the price of upstream raw materials has dropped sharply, and the price of power lithium batteries still has room to decline.
- Upstream supply
Since 2017, the price of upstream raw materials has fluctuated greatly, which has brought certain challenges to the cost control of power lithium battery enterprises.
According to the data of the United States Geological Survey (USGS), the current global lithium reserves are about 14 million tons, mainly concentrated in Chile, China, Argentina and Australia, of which Chile's reserves account for more than half, and China's lithium reserves account for about 22.10% of the global reserves. Domestic lithium ore reserves are relatively large and are not easily affected by international resources and the environment. However, my country's lithium ore resources are mainly concentrated in the northwest region and the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, which is difficult to mine and easily damages the natural environment. From the perspective of lithium carbonate prices, due to the rapid expansion of new energy vehicle production capacity in recent years, the production of lithium carbonate in China has generally been in short supply. In 2017, the price of lithium carbonate showed an increasing trend, and there was a wave of lithium carbonate prices in August 2017. The relatively large increase is mainly due to the fact that the news of new energy vehicle subsidy fraud in the early stage has been gradually digested, the sales of new energy vehicles have increased significantly year-on-year, and the sharp increase in demand has caused a certain imbalance between the supply and demand of lithium carbonate in the short term. Since the beginning of 2018, the price of lithium carbonate has shown a continuous downward trend. The main reason is that at the end of 2017, a large increase in production has been experienced. The inventory of downstream power battery companies has reached a high level. It has entered the stage of inventory reduction, and downstream demand cannot support the price. The price of lithium carbonate has continued to fall since April, mainly due to the oversupply of industrial-grade lithium carbonate in Qinghai, which has dragged down the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate; at the same time, due to the high requirements for battery energy density, the market demand for high-nickel ternary materials has continued to increase compared with last year , the demand for lithium carbonate tends to be replaced by lithium hydroxide.
The distribution of global cobalt resources is concentrated, and nearly half of the resources are distributed in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. According to USGS statistics, in 2015, the global cobalt resource reserves totaled 7.16 million tons, 3.4 million tons in Congo (Kinshasa), 1.1 million tons in Australia, and 500,000 tons in Cuba. China's reserves are only 80,000 tons, accounting for only about 1% of global cobalt resources. Since the second half of 2016, the political situation in Congo (Kinshasa) has been turbulent, resulting in a stagnation in the growth of cobalt mine production. Congo (Kinshasa) promulgated a new mining law in March 2018, which increased mining taxes and state-owned components of mineral development, increased mining costs, and increased uncertainty in the upstream. Subsequently, the cobalt price gradually entered a continuous downward channel. The average price of the electrolytic cobalt market was around 490,000 yuan/ton at the end of September, and it was still on a downward trend. It is in a downward channel, leading to negative inventory replenishment in the middle and lower reaches of the down cycle.
In terms of cathode materials, the national output of cathode materials for lithium batteries in 2017 was 323,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 49.54%. Among them, the output of lithium iron phosphate was 101,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 36.49%; the output of ternary materials was 126,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 93.85%. With the increase in the production scale of power lithium batteries, the production of positive electrode materials has increased year-on-year. In April 2017, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Medium and Long-Term Development Plan for the Automobile Industry", which required that the specific energy of a single power battery should reach 300Wh/kg, and the specific energy of the system should reach 260Wh/kg. The energy density of power batteries based on lithium iron phosphate is difficult to meet this requirement, and ternary materials have become a deterministic trend. In 2017, the output of ternary materials increased significantly, surpassing the output of lithium iron phosphate, occupying the first place in the market.
From the price point of view, the price of lithium iron phosphate has shown a downward trend in recent years, mainly due to insufficient downstream demand and overcapacity. Affected by favorable policy factors and rising raw material prices, the price of ternary materials has increased sharply since April 2017, and then fell after reaching a high level in May 2018, mainly due to the decline in the prices of lithium and cobalt raw materials.
In terms of other main raw materials, the negative electrode material is mainly graphite, and the price remains stable due to the support of the cost end; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate, the raw material of the diaphragm and electrolyte, is on a downward trend as a whole, and the price of the diaphragm has dropped significantly after March 2018, mainly due to the downstream new The decline in subsidies for energy vehicles and the increase in the supply of diaphragms; the sharp drop in the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is mainly due to the sharp increase in new production capacity leading to increasingly fierce market competition.
- Downstream demand
New energy vehicles still maintain rapid growth, providing good support for the development of power lithium batteries
New energy vehicles are an important application field of power lithium batteries, and their industry development has a greater impact on the lithium battery industry. As the global energy crisis and environmental pollution become increasingly prominent, the development of energy-saving and environmental protection-related industries has been highly valued, and the development of new energy vehicles has reached a global consensus. Not only the governments of various countries have successively announced time plans for banning the sale of fuel vehicles, but major vehicle companies have also successively released strategies for new energy vehicles. Since 2012, the production and sales volume of new energy vehicles in China has been on the rise. With 2015 as the largest production and sales growth rate, under the influence of the increase in incremental supply, the industry tends to grow steadily after 2016. In 2017, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in my country were 794,000 and 777,000, respectively, with a growth rate of more than 50%. From January to September 2018, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in my country were 735,000 and 721,000, a year-on-year increase of 73% and 81%, respectively. The substantial growth of new energy vehicles has driven the rapid development of the power lithium battery industry.
- Competitive landscape
The concentration of the industry is increasing rapidly, and the pattern of oligopoly competition is taking shape
With the reduction of state subsidies for new energy vehicles and the improvement of technical requirements for obtaining subsidies, some battery companies with backward technology or high cost have been gradually eliminated by the market, and the concentration of the industry has continued to increase. At present, the domestic power lithium battery market has formed three echelons: In 2017, Ningde Times (CATL) surpassed BYD (002594, stock bar) to become the industry leader of domestic power lithium batteries, and BYD is changing from a self-sufficient model to supplying other vehicle manufacturers The above two companies constitute the "first echelon" of the industry; the "second echelon" is composed of Guoxuan High-Tech (002074, Stock Bar), Funeng, Lishen, BAK and other enterprises, which are important participants in the industry; The "third echelon" is composed of other enterprises, which face the pressure of survival of the fittest in the fierce competition in the industry.
From the perspective of market share, the total installed capacity of the top ten power lithium battery companies accounted for 72.35% in 2017, of which CATL accounted for 28.70% and BYD accounted for 14.98%. 43.68%; from January to September 2018, the top ten installed capacity accounted for 87.07% in total, of which CATL accounted for 41.10% and BYD accounted for 23.86%. reached 64.96%, and the market concentration has increased significantly. At the same time, competition in the power lithium battery industry is still intensifying. Leading companies are deeply binding vehicle companies through technology upgrades and establishing joint ventures to expand orders and market share. In the four first-tier cities of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, which are the most important sales markets for domestic pure electric vehicles, except for Shenzhen, where BYD is headquartered, Ningde Times and other three strong local vehicle companies (such as BAIC, SAIC, and GAC) have achieved In-depth cooperation has grabbed a considerable market share and further promoted the growth of its market share. A pattern of industry oligarchy competition is taking shape, and the living space of other market participants is constantly being compressed. Read related testimonials:LiFePO4 battery 48V
- Industry concerns
structural overcapacity
Due to the rapid growth of the new energy vehicle industry, major lithium battery manufacturers have increased their production capacity layout for power lithium batteries, resulting in their production capacity growth rate continuing to be higher than that of new energy vehicle sales. According to the summary of the production capacity of domestic power lithium battery enterprises by the Qianzhan Industry Research Institute, by the end of 2017, the nominal production capacity of power lithium batteries exceeded 170GWh, but the overall capacity utilization rate was less than 40%. However, the overcapacity in the power lithium battery market is a structural overcapacity that coexists with tight supply and overcapacity. The rise of ternary lithium batteries and the decline of other lithium batteries make lithium iron phosphate batteries, lithium manganese oxide batteries, and lithium titanate batteries Such waste of production capacity has resulted in insufficient supply of high-end production capacity and insufficient orders for low-end production capacity.
Increased pressure on downstream repayment
Power lithium battery companies usually give downstream car companies 30 to 90 days of payment. Since 2016, affected by the adjustment of new energy vehicle subsidy policies, the cash flow of downstream vehicle manufacturers has temporarily tightened, and payment has been delayed, making power lithium battery companies The pressure to pay back is increasing. Generally speaking, the "3-6-1" billing period model is adopted between battery companies and vehicle companies. After signing the contract, a 10%-30% prepayment is made in advance, and the payment is made within 2-3 months after the goods arrive. 50%-60%, and the remaining 10% will be paid within 12 months after delivery as a quality assurance deposit, and in most cases, the due payment will be postponed. At present, the overall accounts receivable turnover days of the lithium battery industry exceed 4 months, which has a certain impact on the cash flow of power lithium battery companies.
Lithium battery scrap recycling problem
According to relevant industry data, with the rapid development of the new energy vehicle industry, the scrapped power lithium battery in my country will reach 32.2GWh by 2020, about 500,000 tons; by 2023, the scrapped amount will reach 101GWh, about 1.16 million tons. However, there are still many difficulties in battery recycling in China. First of all, the technical standards of battery companies have not been unified, and the types of power batteries are not the same. This is the main difficulty faced by battery recycling companies in the process of recycling and dismantling. The difficulty of detection increases the risk of reuse. Secondly, the domestic power battery recycling technology is not comprehensive enough, the recycling cost is relatively high, the input and output are relatively low, and the recycling value is weak. In addition, after some unqualified enterprises recycle waste batteries, they dispose of waste batteries arbitrarily through methods that do not meet the requirements, causing serious environmental pollution. With the continuous strengthening of environmental protection supervision, the above-mentioned unqualified recycling enterprises began to be closed one after another, which narrowed the recycling channels of batteries.
- Industry policy
Power lithium batteries are the core components of new energy vehicles. In order to speed up the industrialization of new energy vehicles, the state has promulgated a series of relevant policy documents to strongly support the healthy and rapid development of my country's new energy vehicles and power lithium battery industries.
Focus on the development of new energy battery industry
The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Science and Technology, and the Ministry of Finance issued the "Action Plan for Promoting the Development of the Automotive Power Battery Industry" in March 2017, proposing to promote the development of power batteries in my country in three stages: In 2018, improve the cost performance of existing products and ensure high Quality battery supply; in 2020, a new generation of lithium-ion power batteries based on existing technology improvements will be implemented on a large scale; in 2025, new system batteries using new chemical principles will strive to achieve technological change and development and testing.
The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission, and the Ministry of Science and Technology issued the "Medium and Long-Term Development Plan for the Automobile Industry" in April 2017, proposing to use new energy vehicles and intelligent networked vehicles as a breakthrough point to accelerate cross-border integration, build a new industrial ecology, drive industrial transformation and upgrading, and realize Develop from big to strong. By 2020, the annual production and sales of new energy vehicles will reach 2 million, the specific energy of a single power battery will reach 300Wh/Kg, and the specific energy of the system will reach 260Wh/Kg. By 2025, new energy vehicles will account for more than 20% of automobile production and sales.
Increase the threshold of production scale
The "Standard Conditions for the Automotive Power Battery Industry" and "Standard Conditions for the Lithium-ion Battery Industry" released in 2015 put forward requirements for the production scale of power batteries from the policy level. Draft) further puts forward higher requirements on the production scale: the annual production capacity of lithium-ion power battery enterprises is not less than 8 billion watt-hours; the annual production capacity of system enterprises is not less than 80,000 sets or 4 billion watt-hours; the production of various types The annual production capacity of power battery monomer enterprises and system enterprises must meet the above requirements respectively.
Subsidies for new energy vehicles will gradually decline
In recent years, the state's subsidy policy for new energy vehicles has shown a trend of tightening the subsidy quota and gradually increasing the subsidy threshold. At present, my country's current new energy vehicle subsidy policy is the "Notice on Adjusting and Improving the Financial Subsidy Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles" promulgated in February 2018. According to changes in costs and other situations, the subsidy standard for new energy passenger vehicles will be adjusted and optimized to reasonably reduce Subsidy standards for new energy passenger cars and new energy special vehicles. With the further adjustment of the subsidy policy, the energy density of the battery system has become the core adjustment factor for the subsidy level. At the same time, the threshold of the recommended model catalog is raised and dynamically adjusted, which will help guide the power battery to products with better overall performance, eliminate inferior production capacity, and accelerate The integration of the battery industry is conducive to the development of industry leading enterprises with strong financial and technical strength.
For more information about lithium batteries, please refer to:Lithium iron Phosphate Battery Manufacturers